Strategic Stability, Cyber Operations and International Security
It is easy to be taken aback by how quickly digital information and communication technology (ICT) has become indispensable to government, the economy and everyday life. Vital infrastructure such as electrical grids, hospitals, media and transportation networks have become ICT reliant. The weapons and defensive systems of most advanced economies have followed suit. But the same flowering of ICT infrastructure that has produced wondrous gains in efficiency carries with it an inherent vulnerability, presenting a novel avenue of attack through cyberspace by which hostile actors can strike. Governments have been slow to rouse themselves to this threat; a recent report from the US Government Accountability Office (2018) admonished the Department of Defense for its lax standards, asserting that many US weapons systems could be disabled through simplistic cyber attacks. This pervasive vulnerability to threats from cyberspace has worrying implications for national security and international stability.
The technical and political difficulties of accurately attributing cyber attacks offer hostile actors the ability to avoid punishment, creating an “offence-dominant” environment. Shared supply chains and reliance on a small number of ICT platforms ensure that government infrastructure and security systems possess the same technical vulnerabilities as the private sector, many of which are well known or easily discoverable. Antiquated global governance surrounding the use of force has allowed malicious actors to perpetrate mischief while staying just below the threshold that would provoke a response. In combination, these factors present a challenge to the maintenance of global stability, which both national governments and international organizations are struggling to cope with.
Shared supply chains and reliance on a small number of ICT platforms ensures that government infrastructure and security systems possess the same technical vulnerabilities as the private sector, many of which are well known or easily discoverable.
The rapid rate of technological change inevitably outpaces government and society’s ability to comprehend that change. This is true at both the national and the international level. National governments and international organizations are now struggling to understand the vulnerabilities posed by the world’s unprecedented reliance on digital infrastructure, and the destabilizing effect this may have on the current international order.
Well-established concepts within international security, such as the effectiveness of deterrence strategies, have been cast into doubt. Nonetheless, a few broad implications of the new importance of the cyber domain can be observed from within a general climate of uncertainty.